Begin as economy, industrial gas is paid attention to more and more and use generally, besides this convenient sex that besides its itself has and catholicity, this category still holds the flexibility that has provided and aggression sex concurrently.
Above all, industrial gas regards the blood of “ industry as ” , demand has continuity, and downstream and numerous, include steely metallurgy, chemical industry, food, medical treatment to wait, there are significant position and effect in national economy, it is relatively typical aggression sex trade.
Next, the operation form of industrial gas has “ to enter can attack, remove the outstanding property that can defend ” , the client passes big dosage 15-30 year temporarily the ready money that the agreement provides wave motion flows, in the small dosage of time fall victim of economic boom the client's demand promotes, wholesale gas measures valence to rise together, acute and bouncy.
Additional, leave from financial angle, face demand of same air feed, continue in the client below the premise of sexual operation, the cash of industrial gas business flows present worth common be more than provide business of empty cent equipment only. In the meantime, in Euramerican hind industrialized times makes make one's fortune with equipment of air take leave of next the strange long-distance way of tycoon of gas of industry of before transition is the “ of industrial gas provider 4 big ” also proved industrial gas supplies is an exceedingly meaning, and it is a business that latent capacity can present company of tycoon of market prise of one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two dollars.
Operation form: Long assist absolutely wave motion, wholesale and rich flexibility
The essence of industrial gas preparation is wait for the helium gas in air, oxygen, nitrogen extract of aeriform take leave of. Consequently the center of industrial gas preparation is equipment of air take leave of, its center component has turbine constrictive machine and heat exchanger of board wing type. The raw material that industrial gas makes is air and report, according to survey, charge of electricity is occupied about 80% what control form cost, equipment of course air take leave of will be of all kinds aeriform take leave of, pass conduit, tank car or gas cylinder store carry, be like chart 1.
The preparation secondary cent of industrial gas is two kinds of means, build installation oneself air feed and outside the bag gives tripartite air feed. Proposing the commercial form that provides air feed correspondence oneself is a client from equipment of air take leave of manufacturer place is bought be too busy to enrage carry of equipment of take leave of to come plan to build base, build base contract tripartite, the project just is offerred with empty cent equipment just can be same square or two, the client owns facility of air take leave of this one heavy asset, at the same time him bear sky divides the profit and loss of equipment base. The commercial form that air feed includes outside tripartite is a client be in according to to measure valence to purchase gas from business of supply of tripartite gas directly, if need relatively a few gas, criterion demand nearby builds empty cent base, equipment of so empty cent belongs to aeriform supply business, and aeriform supply business holds the position of base build and operation. The industrial gas business that often says inside course of study, what point to on practice is outside the business of the business of supply of tripartite gas in including air feed business, be like chart 2.
Aeriform marketing is with the spot the project that make energy of life is bedrock normally. What carry hard as a result of gas is characteristic, the larger to industrial gas demand plant area such as large petrifaction, chemical industry, steely factory can choose nearby to build facility of air take leave of in the spot in order to offer in a steady stream often industrial gas. Consequently aeriform provider can rely on the spot to make gas project create subsidiary or base in project other place above all, mix in order to find a place for equipment of operation air take leave of. Course and big client sign 15-30 year those who differ temporarily air feed contract, the ready money that provides wave motion flows, obtain the spot to make the essential investment of gas project repay, be like chart 3.
The by-product in making a progress to enrage conduit is abundant application, derive wholesale gas to sell. Be restricted by the place of the mechanism that make energy of life that distributes equipment for nothing, liquid oxygen, liquid nitrogen is the by-product that conduit enrages. Thinking carries capital, if project base all around can carry radius (common in 400km less than) inside just has demand the client of the industrial gas of absolutely and lesser dimensions, aeriform provider can sell by-product take advantage of an opportunity piece in order to gain rated profit.
Temporarily all up of air feed contract becomes the ” of “ cushion rubber in cycle of economic be issued to lower levels
The big client of aeriform project and aeriform supply business sign temporarily air feed contract is to illuminate normally pay do not view a contract (“Take-or-Pay” ) . According to this kind of contract, no matter the seller of project product whether the product that purchases a company, seller is accountability get decide the product payment for goods of excessive. Aeriform supply business controls air base in each spot corresponding a 15-30 year differ sell a contract temporarily, regular the client's lowest uses tolerance and the aeriform price that are parameter recuperation with the element such as level of electrovalency, price. The result that even if client presents consumptive side brings about did not arrive at lowest to use tolerance inside that month, client still accountability the lowest that goes up according to the agreement gets the fee that month with tolerance computation. Pay through illuminating do not view a contract, can assure this repaying to each spot makes gas project obtain a root, average project is repaid rate control in 10%-15% .
Temporarily business of supply of gas of industry of support of air feed contract in economic cycle the operation that absolutely wave motion has in shaking is behaved. As a result of industrial gas industry this is planted common commercial form, simply base of each gas project relied on temporarily consultative client, for gas supply business offers fluctuant cash to flow, industry cycle shakes lesser. According to understanding, in period of crisis of 2008-2009 annuity be in harmony, company of 4 air system (product of air of liquefaction of Lynd group, Pulaikesi, France, United States air) industrial gas defray was in each company to all occupy 70% above 2009, among them the industrial gas defray of American air product is occupied than for 72.41% , defray of gas of law fluid empty industry is occupied than for 85.10% , two companies defray discerned 2009 drop compared to the same period 20.72% with 13.35% , industrial gas defray is occupied dovisher operation show is had in comparing higher company to shake in economic cycle, see chart 4.
Long assist defray is occupied than more expensive gas supply business is in the performance in cycle of economic be issued to lower levels is more steady. In cycle of economic be issued to lower levels, the volume price of wholesale gas all is met bear pressure, and long assist the ready money that can provide absolutely wave motion for the company flows, grow consequently assist defray is occupied than more expensive gas supply business is in the performance in cycle of economic be issued to lower levels is more steady.
All up of wholesale gas business estimates value in the fall victim in cycle of economic be issued to lower levels double litre
Area approves the metabolic secondary that sends aeriform price to suffer the effect of format of area supply and demand, more sensitive to demand. Ponder from capital and economy angle, wholesale gas has the restriction of carriage radius normally, consequently wholesale gas shows region price difference, its region price is less important by the resolution of format of aeriform supply and demand in this area. The tigidity that supplies end as a result of industrial gas is stronger, inside limits of location of the some inside casual laborer husband add a few gas newly harder to supply demand, consequently wholesale gas price checks area demand is more sensitive. Demand end covers industry of large minority manufacturing industry, consequently demand changes or add with the GDP of area fast close and relevant, the edge change secondary of demand counts the manufacturing industry growth of area and boom state, curve of wholesale supply and demand is like chart 5.
Company of gas of transition of equipment manufacturer apt and have successful case
Can successful transition is Europe and bibcock of equipment of American history proof aeriform company. 20 centuries 8, 90 time, the equipment of is a representing with Lynd group and company of American air product air take leave of on international makes enterprise numerous and complicated furnish to downstream gas product business is begun, and once held larger dominant position on industrial gas international market, and at present aeriform business once became source of its secondary defray, see chart 6.
Discuss: Project of same air feed, is selling equipment earn still to sell gas earn more much?
We think, numerous and complicated of industrial gas tycoon furnishs from gas of industry of equipment manufacturer transition the main driving force of business is confront same client temporarily air feed demand, the present worth that the cash reserve in a bank that acquires through selling equipment flows should be below large minority state the present worth that the cash that is less than sale gas to obtain flows. Consequently, we want to be quantified through a case discuss to go up in project of same air feed, the cash reserve in a bank that sells industry gas flows present worth whether the cash reserve in a bank that prep above sells equipment flows present worth.
We are with Yan mine project exemple discuss. According to the blame July 2013 underground issues a share beforehand case (edit draft) , the means collect that the company issued a share with be not underground 2013 930 million in investment of Yan mine project, odd 20 million yuan with own reserves contributive. Analyse according to Bloomberg, the financing capital of Hangzhou oxygen share was 2013 9.25% , 10 years period calm danger interest rate is 3.17% , show through adding authority to be able to get this purpose to fold rate for 9.12% . The course is calculated, can lose stood 2013 end of the year when on the dot, in cycle of 15 years of contracts, do not ponder value of final device damage to change showing amount, the present worth of all project is 139 million yuan, see chart 7.
The cash reserve in a bank that sells industry gas flows the cash reserve in a bank that apparent prep above sells present worth equipment to circulate present worth. We assume on Yan mine project the company sells a 62500 stere only / the equipment of air take leave of of the hour. According to survey, company dimensions was 100 thousand 2018 / the price of empty cent equipment of the hour is 300 million yuan. Thinking technology raises brought price to reduce, we assume 2013 sixty-two thousand five hundred / the price of empty cent equipment of the hour also is 300 million yuan. According to company money newspaper, the net interest rate that assigned equipment marketing for nothing 2013 is 8.23% , the net interest rate that we assume this is sold also is 8.23% . The imprest metre that ponders firm client reachs the cash income metre of charge and capital, in order to do not have venture interest rate 3.17% fold now, lose company sale divides the present worth that the practice gain cash of equipment flows to be 23.42 million yuan for nothing, 17% what be sale industry gas only.
Temporarily the smallest risk of air feed agreement is to purchase because go bankrupt,just wait for cause to cannot fulfil a contract continuously. Although sell equipment to be in,normally the photograph below the state compares sale gas to gain profit fewer, but the cycle returning a money that sells gas is longer, once accident is stopped,be like a project, the company is in the loss on the project is bigger. Calculate according to us, even if ponders what the equipment after outside combining approval, be being stopped sells off to return a money, it is with Yan mine project exemple also need 10 years in air feed of add of contract invalidation succeed ability is obtained accrual. Consequently apt of Hangzhou oxygen share sells equipment of air take leave of directly to the client of operation ability impeach, receive accept benefit and increase the risk that follow-up of its bear client goes bankrupt in order to obtain continuously. And confront the client that has ability of more fluctuant operation, pass temporarily air feed agreement can gain profit more.
All up reached market of Chinese industry gas 2022 nearly 30 billion
Dimensions of market of dollar industry gas is added fast add with GDP fast it is positive involves a concern. We pass 1994-2017 year of the aeriform pay sum of company of gas of 4 big industry add fast add with world GDP fast stop regression, p-value<0.01, sequential and apparent. Dimensions of industrial gas market is added fast it is GDP is added roughly fast 1.4 times, chart 8.
All up of dimensions of market of Chinese industry gas grows more quickly, all up reached nearly 30 billion dollar 2022. According to Chinese industry website, dimensions of market of gas of our country industry reached 17.9 billion dollar 2017. Basis world bank is right our country 2018-2022 year GDP is added fast forecast the regression with us, we estimate 18-22 year CAGR of market of gas of our country industry is 10.44% , to 2022 all up reachs scale of nearly 30 billion dollar, chart 9.
Transverse be likened to: The bag outside gas of our country industry is soaked rate be in inferior degree
Whole world of dimensions of market of gas of our country industry is had rate is apparent under our country industry whole world of production production value is occupied than. Industrial gas is by analogy “ blood ” of industry, it is one of element of industry of national economy bedrock, be used generally at category of industrial manufacturing industry, consequently, we feel production production value and whole world of dimensions of industrial gas market occupy the industry of each country to marry than answering. Production production value of our country industry occupied global industry to make production value arrive 2017 26.62% , and whole world of gas of our country industry was had 2017 rate it is only 15.84% , growth potential is greater in the future, be like chart 10, 11.
Rate of the bag outside Chinese industry gas is far 2018 under prosperous nation. According to Chinese industry website and relevant survey, rate of the bag outside Chinese industry gas was about 2018 45% , compare flourishing country of 80% outside bag rate still has bigger difference. Estimate consequently, to 2020 tripartite spot makes gas make gas be occupied mediumly in all spot than will arriving 57% , chart 12.
Ponder from capital and safe sex angle, economy of the bag outside business is outstanding
Bag behavior can obtain lower capital, taller operation efficiency and smooth security evidence outside. Industry of gas of mature market industry also experience by the process of the bag outside be being abstained, secondary ponders element to have:
1) capital element: According to IAOP, bag behavior can save the capital of 9% at most outside, and efficiency and quality rise 15% .
2) operation efficiency: According to understanding, a 800 thousand stere / the installation of the hour, american air product demand 16 operator, and normal mill demand equips the operator of 50 above. At the same time outside bag behavior can let a factory be purchased from the heavy asset of equipment of air take leave of manacle in behavior come out, will infinite capital is centered at advocate course of study, increase the risk of profit of operation of empty cent equipment, ascensive operation efficiency. Chart 13.
3) restful element: Bag behavior can make divide equipment to leave operation in the operation of professional for nothing outside, have taller smooth security card, deal with in what be or get out of danger also can obtain seasonable major at the same time. It is reported, henan saved motorization of Henan of 3 gorge city to be versed in fit of workshop of take leave of of air of factory of aerification of group justice horse explodes on July 20, 2019, the accident forms 2 people death, 18 people flesh wound, 12 people break couplet. This accident or because empty branch is broken,exceed press be caused by, the equipment of air take leave of that fit explodes is belonged to abstain air feed base. All up of these 3 element drives market of Chinese industry gas outside bag rate continues to promote.
Burgeoning industry becomes feeble and die, advance form of supply of gas of tripartite industry to begin
The burgeoning industry such as our country semiconductor, smooth hot season, electron is begun tantivy, increase stage by stage to the demand of industrial gas, and burgeoning property is right diversification of all the more of industrial gas demand, onefold gas demand is lesser, but demand breed is more, this will drive market of supply of our country professional gas further begin. According to " gas of our country electron is begun shew " data, the 5% ～ that aeriform capital took IC data total capital about 2018 6% , although look,be like occupy than not quite, but the stand or fall of function of semiconductor device of the resolution on very old standard. Electronic gas purity every progress an amount class, advance the leap with qualitative semiconductor device quickly, electronic gas because its are tall the requirement of purity high quality, the aeriform supply business of demand major is offerred. Consequently, of the burgeoning category such as semiconductor, smooth hot season begin, the bale outside pushing Chinese industry gas market continuity rises.